🌍 Global Conflict & Safety Index

US President Trump posted on Truth Social on Day 23: "If Iran doesn't FULLY OPEN, WITHOUT THREAT, the Strait of Hormuz, within 48 HOURS from this exact point in time, the United States of America will hit and obliterate their various POWER PLANTS, STARTING WITH THE BIGGEST ONE FIRST!" Iran's military responded immediately, threatening to target all energy infrastructure linked to the US and Israel across the Middle East if Iranian power plants were struck. Iran's military also separately warned it would deliver "crushing blows" to the UAE port city of Ras al-Khaimah if further aggression was launched from UAE territory against the disputed Gulf islands of Abu Musa and Greater Tunb. Israel launched new airstrikes on east Tehran following the Day 22 missile exchange. Iran intercepted a US-Israeli armed drone over Tehran before it could operate (Tasnim). The IRGC claimed (for the third time in the war) to have shot down an Israeli fighter jet in Iranian airspace. Millions of Iranians marked a rare alignment of Eid al-Fitr and Nowruz (Persian New Year) under the threat of bombardment; large crowds gathered at holy sites including the Imam Reza Shrine in Mashhad; many gatherings turned into anti-Western protests. Israeli Defense Minister Katz stated strikes would "increase significantly" this week. Trump: "Their leadership is gone, their navy and air force are dead, they have absolutely no defense, and they want to make a deal. I don't!" UKMTO confirmed 21 attacks on commercial vessels and offshore infrastructure since Mar 1; Gulf threat level remains CRITICAL. Trump administration granted temporary licence for Iran to sell 140 million barrels of crude oil sitting on tankers to calm markets; analysts called the move "potentially counterproductive" (Al Jazeera). Axios reported Washington is considering plans to blockade or occupy Iran's Kharg Island, a strategic oil hub that handles 9-in-10 barrels of Iranian oil exports to China.

Day 22 produced the most geographically wide-ranging strikes of the entire war. In southern Israel, Iranian ballistic missiles broke through Israeli air defences for the first time in days, making direct impacts in the cities of Dimona and Arad; Israel declared a mass casualty event; approximately 100 people were wounded, seven in serious condition (Israel Emergency Services). The IRGC said it targeted military installations and security centres in Arad, Dimona, Eilat, Beersheba, and Kiryat Gat. PM Netanyahu said Israel had "a very difficult evening in the battle for our future" and was "strengthening emergency and rescue forces." The IAEA confirmed it was aware of a missile impact in the city of Dimona and stated there are no indications of damage to the Negev nuclear research centre; no radioactive material was released. Iran claimed 200+ were killed in its strikes; Israel did not confirm deaths at that point. The Natanz uranium enrichment facility was struck again; Iran's Atomic Energy Organisation confirmed the Shahid Ahmadi Roshan complex was targeted; no radiation leakage reported (IAEA). Russia condemned the Natanz strike as "a blatant violation of international law" (Russian Foreign Ministry). Iran launched intermediate-range ballistic missiles at Diego Garcia; the joint US-UK Indian Ocean airbase that has served as the primary heavy bomber staging hub, located approximately 2,370 miles from Iran's coast. Neither missile struck the base (US official); the UK denounced the attack as "Iran's reckless attacks." Iran also struck the US Embassy logistics base in Baghdad three times. In Kuwait, two waves of Iranian drones hit the Mina al-Ahmadi refinery; one of the Middle East's largest facilities, processing approximately 730,000 barrels of oil per day; sparking a confirmed fire (Al Jazeera/Reuters). Qatar's Ministry of Defence reported one of its helicopters suffered a technical malfunction during a routine duty and crashed in regional waters; a search operation was underway. Bahrain reported its air defences had shot down 143 missiles and 242 drones fired by Iran over the entire course of the war.

Iran launched five missile salvos at Jerusalem and northern Israel within one hour on Day 21 (Mar 20). Fragments from an Iranian missile interception damaged three private jets at Ben Gurion Airport. An Iranian cluster missile attack killed three Palestinians and injured 13 in Beit Awwa, West Bank; Iran also killed three women in a West Bank hair salon near Hebron when debris from an interception struck the building (Palestinian Ministry of Health). Netanyahu held a press conference and gave a diplomatically worded answer on the South Pars strike: "Fact number one, Israel acted alone against the Asaluyeh gas compound. Fact number two, President Trump asked us to hold off on future attacks, and we're holding off." He added: "There are many signs that the Iranian regime is cracking." Iran executed three men linked to January protests, including a 19-year-old wrestler; the first executions tied to the protest crackdown. Lebanon death toll now exceeds 1,000. The IMO held an extraordinary session on the 20,000 seafarers stranded on 3,200 vessels west of the Strait of Hormuz. The Pentagon formally requested an additional $200 billion in war funding from Congress; Republican Senator Susan Collins (Appropriations Committee chair) said she had not yet been notified of the request. Gaza: Rafah border crossing with Egypt reopened for the first time since the war began on Feb 28.

Israel struck Iran's South Pars gas field; the world's largest natural gas reserve, shared with Qatar; in a major escalation. Trump on Truth Social: "The United States knew nothing about this particular attack." Sources familiar with the strike disputed his claim. Trump told Netanyahu to stop attacking Iranian energy; Netanyahu: "We're holding off." Hours later, Iran IRGC retaliated: Qatar's Ras Laffan Industrial City struck; fires confirmed by Qatar Interior Ministry; Qatar energy chief estimated $20B annual revenue loss. Saudi Arabia and UAE energy sites also hit; UAE intercepted 7 missiles and 15 drones. Brent crude hit $115/barrel. IRGC warned: "If it is repeated again, further attacks on your energy infrastructure and that of your allies will not stop until it is completely destroyed." Israel separately executed the first-ever strikes on Iranian naval assets in the Caspian Sea (Bandar-e Anzali, 5 vessels hit); landlocked, bordered by Russia. IDF also struck 200 targets across western and central Iran. Intelligence Minister Esmail Khatib killed. Iran cluster munitions: Thai worker killed in Moshav Adanim (Sharon); Jaljulia hit; Haifa oil refinery struck. Two commercial vessels hit in Persian Gulf (UKMTO). Lebanon death toll surpassed 1,000 (968 per latest health ministry figures rising). ACLED: nearly 2,000 distinct conflict events across 29 of Iran's 31 provinces since Day 1.

Israel assassinated Ali Larijani, head of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, and Gholamreza Soleimani, commander of the Basij paramilitary force, in overnight strikes (Days 17-18). New Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei issued a rare written statement on Telegram: "Every drop of spilled blood comes at a price" - calling the killers "criminal murderers." He condemned the killing of Larijani as a "cowardly assassination." Iranian President Pezeshkian also condemned it. Khamenei has not appeared in public since taking power. A leaked audio recording verified by The Telegraph showed Mojtaba survived the Feb 28 strike by seconds; his wife Zahra Haddad-Adel and son were killed instantly; his brother-in-law was also killed. Netanyahu on Mojtaba: "Have you seen him? We haven't... I think the authority Khamenei had won't transfer to anyone." US DNI Tulsi Gabbard told Congress Iran was "intact but largely degraded" and; in a disputed omission; acknowledged Tehran had not resumed nuclear enrichment. Bahrain announced 132 missiles and 234 drones intercepted since Day 1; among the highest interception rates in the region. Kuwait arrested 16 (14 Kuwaitis, 2 Lebanese) affiliated with Hezbollah for a "sabotage plot." Iran restricted internet access as of Mar 17 to select users only. France FM Barrot traveled to Beirut (Mar 19) in solidarity: "Lebanon was dragged into a war it didn't choose."

Trump's 'Hormuz Coalition' announced over the weekend collapsed into a diplomatic deadlock. Germany: "As long as this war continues, there will be no participation not even in any effort to keep the Strait of Hormuz open by military means." UK PM Starmer: "That won't be, and it's never been envisioned to be, a NATO mission." Greece and Italy echoed Germany. Australia ruled out sending ships. EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas: "no appetite" among EU members to extend the Aspides mission to Hormuz. Trump warned allies it will be "very bad for the future of NATO." Iran unveiled its counter-offer: the Strait open only for trade in Chinese yuan, not US dollars (CNN/senior Iranian official). India confirmed 2 LPG tankers transited safely after coordinating with Iranian Navy; Turkey cleared 1 vessel with 14 more awaiting. IRGC Navy Chief Tangsiri: "The Strait has not militarily been closed it is merely under control." Axios: Trump actively weighing seizure of Iran's Kharg Island; processes 9-in-10 barrels of Iran's oil exports to China; as "economic knockout of the regime." Requires US boots on ground. Brent ~$106/barrel (40%+ above pre-war). Iran's yuan-for-Hormuz proposal called the most direct challenge to petrodollar dominance since the 1974 oil shock. Israel: "thousands of targets remain in Iran war will last at least three more weeks."

US and Israel struck multiple sites across Isfahan province in early hours of Mar 15, killing at least 15 people (Al Jazeera). Residential areas in Shiraz were also hit. Iran launched multiple barrages of missiles at central Israel in retaliation sirens blared nationwide. The IRGC launched 10 missiles and several drones at UAE Al-Dhafra Air Base. Dubai Creek Harbour tower struck by Iranian drone Mar 14 (EPA confirmed). Smoke from major UAE energy installation seen on Mar 14. Lebanon: Israeli strikes killed 5 in two southern towns including a child; an entire family including two children killed in Qantara. Hezbollah battled Israeli military advances at Al-Khazan hill and near Fatima Gate. Saudi Arabia intercepted 4 drones over Riyadh metro area; 2 killed, 12 injured in Saudi Arabia total. IRGC ballistic missile rate now ~90% lower, drones ~80% lower than Day 1 (CENTCOM/ACLED) Israel confirmed critically low on interceptors (Semafor). Iran confirmed death of Brig.-Gen. Abdullah Jalali Nasab. Total dead: Iran 1,444+; Lebanon 826+; Israel 15+; 13 US soldiers; 19 Gulf states (Al Jazeera).

Mojtaba Khamenei issued first statement as Supreme Leader via state TV on Mar 13 did not appear in person. He warned attacks continue unless all US bases in the region are closed. Hegseth: Khamenei is "wounded and likely disfigured." State Dept announced $10M bounty on Khamenei and top Iranian officials; informants eligible for relocation. All 6 US aircrew killed when Air Force refuelling aircraft crashed in western Iraq not caused by hostile fire; aircraft lacked ejection systems. Explosions near Tehran's Al Quds Day rally one woman killed (Iranian state media). Israel struck Basij checkpoints in Tehran and government/weapons storage buildings. US deploying 2,200-strong Marine Expeditionary Unit from Okinawa. 250+ US organisations signed letter to Congress demanding war funding halt $11.3bn spent in first 6 days. Senate committee announced first open oversight hearing of the war.

UN Security Council passed 13-0 resolution (Russia and China abstaining) demanding Iran halt Gulf attacks, warn against Hormuz closure, reaffirm freedom of navigation. Fighting widened hours later. Pezeshkian set 3 peace conditions: recognition of rights, reparations, international guarantees. IRGC attacked Gulf states in direct defiance. Arab News: "IRGC has no intention of honoring presidential orders." Saudi FM: "The Iranians have not applied this on the ground, before or after the president's speech." CENTCOM: 6,000+ targets struck in Iran; 90+ Iranian vessels destroyed. UNHCR: 3.2 million displaced inside Iran. Bahrain arrested 4 citizens for IRGC espionage. Qatar Airways resumed 29 flights after total grounding. Senior adviser Safavi called Trump "Satan himself" on state TV. B-2 bombers used 30,000-pound bunker-busters on Talaghan-2 nuclear facility at Parchin. Kuwait: 6 electricity lines failed from drone debris. Oman: fuel tanks at Salalah port hit by drone.

Iran's IRGC launched Wave 37, describing it as their "most intense and heaviest operation" since the war began a joint operation with Hezbollah running 5 continuous hours and striking 50+ targets across Israel using super-heavy Khoramshahr ballistic missiles (Tel Aviv, Haifa, West Jerusalem, Erbil, Manama). Israel simultaneously launched a "massive wave" of strikes on residential districts of central Tehran overnight; Red Crescent confirmed a residential building hit and rescue teams were digging. 8+ Tehran districts struck; Mehrabad Airport targeted again. Iran's UN ambassador: US and Israel deliberately struck nearly 10,000 civilian sites, killing 1,300+. NYT: Minab girls' school strike on Day 1 was "likely" a US missile with outdated targeting data potential war crime. IRGC struck Thai cargo ship Mayuree Naree and Liberian container ship Express Rome in Hormuz. UK ship ONE Majesty hit near UAE. US destroyed 16 mine-laying vessels. IEA released record 400 million barrels. UAE Ruwais refinery halted. Dubai airport struck by two drones (4 wounded). Iranian drone hit US Baghdad Diplomatic Support Center. IRGC: "War will end only when shadow of war removed from our country."

US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth declared Day 11 "the most intense day of strikes inside Iran the most fighters, the most bombers, the most strikes, intelligence more refined and better than ever." Israel struck Tehran (IRGC Quds Force HQ, nuclear laboratories re-struck from June 2025 12-day war), Isfahan, Shiraz; Tabriz (special units HQ, Basij compound, Ministry of Intelligence building); Sanandaj IRGC Shahramfar base; Khorramabad warehouses; Parchin; Kerman fuel depots; Mehrabad Airport area. US B-2 bombers struck underground missile sites and UAV production facilities. A second Shahid Soleimani-class IRGC warship destroyed at Bandar Abbas port. Pentagon: Iran's ballistic missile launch rate down 90%, drone rate down 80-83% from Day 1 (Gen. Dan Caine). CNN/Times of Israel confirmed Iran began laying ~12 mines in Strait of Hormuz. US Central Command destroyed 16 Iranian mine-laying vessels and released combat video. Trump threatened Iran "TWENTY TIMES HARDER" if Hormuz blocked; Iran's Larijani replied: "Be careful not to get eliminated yourself." Iranian drone struck US Baghdad Diplomatic Support Center near Baghdad International Airport. Bahrain: Iranian attack hit residential building in Manama 29-year-old woman killed, 8 wounded. UAE: 26 drones intercepted but 9 fell inside territory; Ruwais industrial city firefighters battled blaze. Saudi Arabia intercepted 6 ballistic missiles targeting Prince Sultan Air Base. Kuwait National Guard shot down 6 drones. Bahrain, Qatar, Oman all intercepted new waves. Pentagon confirmed 8 US KIA and 140 wounded total. Hegseth told 60 Minutes "this is only the beginning" hours after Trump told CBS "the war is very much complete." US Energy Secretary Wright: US Navy escorted first oil tanker through Hormuz. Aramco CEO Nasser: Hormuz closure could have "catastrophic consequences" for global oil markets. France announced plans for defensive Hormuz escort operation. Saudi Aramco activating East-West pipeline to full 7M bpd capacity via Red Sea. 43,000+ Americans evacuated from Middle East.

Mojtaba Khamenei (56), confirmed by the Assembly of Experts on Mar 9 as Iran's 3rd Supreme Leader, launched fresh missile and drone barrages immediately. Oil briefly surged to $119.50/barrel up 27% in one week, the biggest weekly gain since the COVID-19 pandemic before settling around $113. First Saudi civilian deaths: 2 killed (Indian and Bangladeshi nationals), 12 wounded in Al-Kharj residential compound strike 107km SE of Riyadh. US State Dept ordered all non-emergency diplomats and families to leave Saudi Arabia. Bahrain BAPCO declared force majeure Iranian drone struck Sitra Island residential area, wounding 32 civilians including children aged 2, 7 and 8 (4 critical); refinery fire at Maameer. Saudi Shaybah oilfield: 4 drones intercepted over Rub al-Khali. 7th US KIA identified as Sgt. Benjamin N. Pennington, 26, Glendale KY, 1st Space Brigade. Kuwait confirmed 2 of its own officers killed. Turkey intercepted an Iranian missile for the 2nd time using NATO air defenses; deployed 6 F-16s to Northern Cyprus. Macron visited Cyprus, declared "when Cyprus is attacked, Europe is attacked"; deployed Charles de Gaulle carrier to Mediterranean. Qatar arrested 300+ people for sharing footage of attacks. IDF struck Dahiyeh in Beirut again. HRW confirmed Israel used white phosphorus in southern Lebanon. Lebanon: 394 dead, 1,130 wounded. Lebanese parliament extended its term by 2 years. Fujairah oil facility fire confirmed overnight.